Dire Predictions

“We are closer to recovery today than we were yesterday,” according to a senior economist and vice president of Wells Fargo Bank.

That was the best Dr. Eugenio Alemán could offer about the suffering U.S. economy when he addressed the 11th ASU International Business Symposium on campus this spring.

In fact, Alemán compared the U.S. economy to Humpty Dumpty.

“The U.S. economy is walking on a fragile wall and is about to fall down,” he said.  “Even when we finally get out of the current recession, I believe economic growth will move very slowly.”

Some of his other concerns included skyrocketing inflation, continued high interest rates for loans, even higher unemployment rates and greater taxes in the future to repay the money being doled out in various government economic stimulus packages.

His attitude toward the Texas economy was only slightly better.

“Even though the Texas economy is doing better than the U.S. economy, things are going to get worse before they get better,” Alemán said.  “The Texas economy is going to suffer, but not as much as the rest of the country because the Texas economy is much more efficient.”

However, one potential boon for Texas is Alemán’s forecast that oil prices will also skyrocket when the economy recovers.

In perhaps his only real positive note, Alemán encouraged those who are financially stable to buy houses and vehicles now during the current climate of lower prices and interest rates.  He also advised the audience to invest in solid small businesses.

“It is the small business community that is going to bring us out of this recession,” he concluded.